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March 2017 Seismic Review and Forecast

Updated on March 18, 2017
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

Graphic from Kepler 8 astrology program that shows Astro-Aspect Value peaks for the month of March 2017.
Graphic from Kepler 8 astrology program that shows Astro-Aspect Value peaks for the month of March 2017.

A Study in Contrasts

For the past five years (2012-2016), seismic activity for earthquakes of 6.8 to 7.7 magnitude oscillated between low activity for the even numbered years to high activity for the odd numbered years (this and all other comparisons based on USGS data unless otherwise noted). For earthquakes above that, they numbered two or three each year which was equal to the average for the past 25 years.

But something very unusual started to occur once there was a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in New Zealand on 13 November 2016. Two more earthquakes in the island area east of Papua New Guinea occurred on 8 and 17 December 2016 with a magnitude of 7.8 and 7.9 (the largest for the year). Christmas day saw a 7.6 magnitude event in southern Chile, and the series ended on 22 January 2017 with a 7.8 magnitude quake in the Solomon Islands.

For earthquakes this size, it was unusual to see so many of them in such a short period of time. During this 71 day period there were 6.45 times more earthquakes (of at least 7.8 magnitude) than the average occurrence during the 25 years that ended with the close of 2016.

The Quiet After the Storm...

Since those events, things have been relatively quiet around the world, remaining at the lower limit of average. The largest quake so far was a 6.9 magnitude earthquake south of Fiji on the 24th of February. But if we look at the astrological picture during the next few months, things should change back to very active.

What I zero in on are Astro-Aspect Values (AAV's) or (my term for) angular relationships between solar system bodies that have shown themselves to relate to significant sized earthquakes. During windows of five days surrounding AAV peaks of at least 30, earthquakes of at least 7.7 magnitude are twice as likely to occur than they are for periods outside of such windows. Normally one will see such a large AAV peak once every six months. During an active nine month seismic period from January through September 2013 (when there were 55% more 7.7 magnitude or larger events than normal), there were nine such AAV peaks (or 6 times the normal number).

...But the Seismic Slumber is About Over

If we look at a 77 day period of time, beginning on 18 March 2017 and lasting till May 26, the number of AAV peaks of 30 or more will be three times more numerous than the above normal period of the first nine months of 2013, which will also be 18 times more than normal. I expect the seismic activity for earthquakes of at least 7.7 magnitude to increase three fold for 2.5 months beginning 10 March 2017. What this means is that instead of seeing a normal number, such as one quake of at least 7.7 magnitude during that time, there should be three or more. Worldwide seismic storms usually last no more than 40 days, but I expect this one to last about twice as long.

There should be at least one such event for each of the next three months of this year or March through May. During the first month there are 4 main potential dates: March 11, March 18, March 22-24, and March 27-29. Each one of those dates or ranges of dates should have an extra day added to the beginning and end of each one. The windows will then be three days each for the first two dates, four days for the third, and five days for the last one, totaling 16 days or about half of the month.

Where Might the Activity Be?

Potential locations would be southern Chile, Greece, Italy, and Turkey (based on the last eclipse of 26 February 2017). Chile is the most likely location for an earthquake of at least 7.7 magnitude. For other locations, the size of any potential quake would probably be more like a 7 than an 8 in magnitude. Another possibility is south-central Africa, but the magnitude expected would be no more than 6.1 or 6.2. One last possibility, and this could produce a very large earthquake also, is around Fiji in the South Pacific (although if it occurs it may not be connected to the last eclipse). The date of the 18th of March could produce a dangerous quake just about anywhere in the world since it is associated with the eclipse of 20 March 2015, which ended at the North Pole (and so involves all longitudes).

One Last Factor to Consider

One astrological factor that I have not brought up yet that relates to at least the month of March 2017, is the fact that the planet Mars when viewed from the Sun (or its heliocentric position) will be in line with its crossing of our ecliptic (or the plane of our passage around the sun) at the beginning of the month. In other words, it will be moving from south of the ecliptic plane to north of it at that time. That point is called the ascending or north node of the planet Mars. The very largest of earthquakes, such as 8.8 magnitude or larger often happen at such times and can unleash their power at any time within a month following it conjoining one of its nodes.

This influence could manifest any time in the month of March 2017. The most likely days might be the 2nd through the 6th of March, if there were significant enough astrological factors of note in play as well. That apparently was not the case, so if Mars in relation to its ascending node is to be a factor, it would be in the later part of the month rather than in the former.

April and May of this year are also likely to produce record numbers of large earthquakes. I will be giving forecasts for those months beginning at just before or at the start of that period.

© 2017 Joseph Ritrovato


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  • retrojoe profile image

    Joseph Ritrovato 8 weeks ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    I posted a link to this short article in the Scientific Astrology group on Facebook. A prominent member there commented to say that I should include a table for the projected forecast. I am doing that now in this comment (this relates to earthquakes of at least 6.8 magnitude):

    Windows Est. Probability

    2-6 March 10.00%

    10-12 March 15.00%

    17-19 March 25.00%

    21-25 March 25.00%

    26-30 March 75.00%

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