Seismic Review and Forecast for August 2017

Updated on August 4, 2017
retrojoe profile image

Has studied astrology/historical seismology since the late '70s in San Francisco. Published in the ISAR International Astrologer in 2012.

Magnitude 6.3 or greater worldwide earthquakes for July 2017.
Magnitude 6.3 or greater worldwide earthquakes for July 2017. | Source

July Broke the Tension (A Large Earthquake at Last)

Technically, July 2017 was an average month. However, it marked a turning point in seismic activity for the largest of earthquakes, which had stalled beginning five to six months prior. For 176 days, there were no earthquakes of at least 7.1 magnitude when normally there is one such quake on average each month. What was not typical about this last month is that the quake that occurred in this size range released more than ten times the energy of the six earthquakes of 6.3 to 6.6 magnitude that also occurred or for those events of a level just beneath it in strength. In that regard it was not an average month, although it appears that way at first glance in the table given below.

Seismic Review of July 2017

The smallest of these quakes was a 6.3 magnitude event that was a foreshock to the 7.7 magnitude main shock in Russia (both separated by 12.5 hours). Within three hours following this very large shock, a magnitude 6.3-6.4 event occurred on the southern coast of Peru. An hour shy of three days after the 7.7 magnitude event, there was a 6.6 magnitude quake on the Turkey/Greece border. That happened to be in a popular tourist area and the two deaths caused by this quake were tourists.

There was also a phase of activity that occurred earlier in the month but, they were in the 6.4-6.6 magnitude range also. Those quakes occurred south of New Zealand, The Philippines, and in the Papua New Guinea area. That was during the 6th through the 13th of July. Both myself and another forecaster from the Netherlands thought that there would be an earthquake of at least 7.1 magnitude in July, which I thought could be as high as a 7.8 while he thought that it could reach the just over 8.0 magnitude level. I was right about the size but he was just barely right about the date; he expecting something on the 17th and me on the 18th of July, while it occurred during the last half hour of the 17th.

Many times earthquakes of at least 7.7 magnitude set off a temporary worldwide storm which can last anywhere from around ten days to as much as six weeks. I thought that that might happen this time too, but things fizzled out after the early activity following the largest quake of the month. Things would seem to have calmed down again after that very large but isolated event. And it might stay that way until after the 21 August 2017 total solar eclipse, although there are a couple of windows that open up before that.

Seismic Forecast for August 2017

One thing that I have learned from forecasting earthquakes in relation to the celestial heavens is that astrology does not perform well as a forecast mechanism when seismic activity is average or less. The exception for this would be for the largest earthquakes of at least 8 in magnitude (but perhaps as low as 7.7 in magnitude). For example, 1 April 1968 through 31 August 1968 was a very active period and astrological earthquake indicators accurately forecasted the timing of the occurrence of earthquakes of at least 7.1 magnitude during that time (75% of the time). On the other hand, during the year from the middle of 2016 to the middle of 2017, seismic activity was no better than average and astrology in its ability to forecast earthquakes was very limited or not as reliable during that time.

If one were to ask me how my forecast did for the last month, it has been about the same as it has been for the year before it; a bit mixed. I expect the forecasts to become more accurate following the August 2017 total solar eclipse. The reason for that is because I expect that eclipse, which is more seismically aligned than the average eclipse, should cause an upswing in significant activity (earthquakes of at least 6.7 in magnitude) which should in turn relate more to astrological indicators.

A rough estimate of possible locations would be in Indonesia or Japan in the middle of the month. Japan around the 9th or 10th or Japan and possibly the United States on or near the 28th of August. I expect seismic activity to be roughly average for August 2017, except perhaps for these three locations.

Final Notes

The reason why there was a delay getting this report out for this month was mainly because I was not in a hurry due to another project that I was working on and the lack of earthquake activity foreseen for the first few days of the month as reflected in the second table above.

For the first table shown above, the number of earthquakes for the ranges of 6.0 to 6.3 and 6.4 to 6.7 could be four quakes each. The reason for that is because, due to interference from seismographic readings of the 7.7-7.8 magnitude event of late on the 17th, the earthquake in Peru about 2.5 hours later was difficult to determine and it was decided by GCMT to put off determining its magnitude until more detailed reports arrived in September (the table assumes a magnitude of 6.4 for the Peru event but it could be 6.3).

Astro-Aspect Values (AAVs) for the month of August 2017 as displayed in 4 hour increments using the Kepler 8 astrology program.
Astro-Aspect Values (AAVs) for the month of August 2017 as displayed in 4 hour increments using the Kepler 8 astrology program.

© 2017 Joseph Ritrovato

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  • retrojoe profile imageAUTHOR

    Joseph Ritrovato 

    11 months ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Forecast Update #4: I decided to expand on the last seismic window for the month of August 2017, just a bit more.. Instead of beginning at 27.0 August, it will begin at 26.5 August (using Universal Time)..

  • retrojoe profile imageAUTHOR

    Joseph Ritrovato 

    11 months ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Forecast Update #3: In my forecast given above, the estimate for the last window was cut short a day. It should extend to the end of the month based on a spike in aspect values at around 0700 UT on the 31st of August. The window does not actually end until the middle of the 2nd of September. During that time there should be at least one magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake somewhere in the world. There is also an indication that it could be located in the United States although the chances are greater outside of the U.S. The larger peak in Astro-Aspect Values which occurs a few days before this last one has a stronger chance for a seismic event in the U.S.

  • retrojoe profile imageAUTHOR

    Joseph Ritrovato 

    11 months ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Forecast Update #2: After updating one of my forecast algorithms, I took it for a test drive and discovered a pronounced peak at 2040 UT on the 18th of August that was not noticed earlier. I do not include the 18th in my earlier forecast, but am adding it now. There was a 6.5 magnitude earthquake earlier on the 18th, the largest for the month so far, and I suspect that there is a good chance of another one on the same day or perhaps a bit into the next day or during the early hours of the 19th (all times in Universal Time).

  • retrojoe profile imageAUTHOR

    Joseph Ritrovato 

    11 months ago from Vancouver, WA (nextdoor to Portland, OR)

    Earthquake Forecast Update: After the magnitude 6.4-6.5 magnitude earthquake off the coast of southwest Sumatra on 13 August 2017 at 0308 UTC, I found that there appears to be a connection to that quake and the total solar eclipse of 9 March 2016, the shadow path of which had its center placed just 110 km north of the epicenter. But it looks like there could be a larger magnitude follow-up to the above quake. That is because there is a peak of Astro-Aspect Values (AAVs) related to the positions of solar system objects at the time of the eclipse and a future time of 16 August 2017 at 0130 UTC. There is also another peak of AAVs a few hours after that unrelated to the eclipse, but which could possibly coincide with an earthquake of perhaps 7.5-7.9 magnitude in the same general location as the 6.4-6.5 magnitude event earlier. Based on my research into eclipses, earthquakes happen very often around 1.5 years (give or take 2.5 months) following the eclipse and within 500 km of the center of the eclipse path.

    There is also another noteworthy possibility (although if it happens, it would be the exception, rather than the rule): Following the total solar eclipse of 21 August 2017, which passes through the continental United States from the west to the east coast, there is a spike in AAVs on the 27th through the 29th of August 2017. If a fault is on a hair trigger, or very close to being ready to snap, this could coincide with a seismic event of at least magnitude 6.7 in the continental United States. More likely times of such an occurrence would be not until around three months following the eclipse (give or take a month) or, more likely still, 1.5 years (give or take 2.5 months).

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