Profiling the Total Solar Eclipse of August, 2017
A Need to Be Ready for the Coming Eclipse
By now, most everyone in the U.S. will have heard of the upcoming eclipse extravaganza. The partial part of its phase is scheduled to hit landfall on the west coast on Monday, August 21, 2017, at 09:04:32 am, Pacific Daylight Time, and totality begins at 10:15:56 am, PDT. The total phase ends just shy of two minutes later, and the second partial phase ends 1h18m after that. Of interest (to at least this author) is the fact that where the shadow path of this eclipse hits land on the continental U.S. matches where seismologists estimate the location of a mega earthquake that occurred on either January 26 or 27, 1700 A.D.
An Eclipse With Alarming Potential
About 12 minutes before the end of the second partial eclipse phase on the west coast (12:24pm, CDT), the eclipse reaches totality at the location of its greatest duration (2m40s). This is the center of the eclipse path, where it is also at its widest of 71 miles (115 km). It also happens to be in Hopkinsville, Kentucky, the birthplace of the late, great American clairvoyant Edgar Cayce. In some of his psychic readings he revealed that much of the western U.S. would eventually be covered by the ocean. In his same trance readings he was instructed to move his family to the safer geological area of Virginia Beach. This is what he did and the foundation based on his readings (the Association for Research and Enlightenment) has been located there since his death in 1945.
One thing I have learned from my years studying metaphysics is that legitimate psychics can determine the type and location of a future event, but getting the time right is much more difficult. It is about as difficult as it would be for an expert seismologist to try and predict earthquakes. One might be able to get a general idea and from that create a forecast of probability over the course of several decades. In this forecast the general location and minimum magnitude may be determined, but to give a specific date of when the earthquake will definitely happen, in most cases, would be a near impossibility.
However, from my research into eclipses and their relationship to very large earthquakes, the timing of such events can be narrowed down to a few years rather than a few decades. One still would not know the exact time of when an event would occur, but the probability of it occurring would go up significantly.
The timing between when an eclipse occurs in a seismically active zone and when an earthquake of significant size (at least 6.6 magnitude) would occur varies from one type of eclipse to the next, but general patterns emerge after studying many eclipses and earthquakes that occur within several hundred miles from the center of the eclipse paths. These periods of time are within 1.7 years following the eclipse (especially 1.3-1.7 years after), 3.5-4 years after, and then an even smaller probability for the time between 1.7 and 3.5 years or following 4 years.
Now Appears to Be a Good Time to Prepare
Just as not all very large earthquakes are preceded by fore-shocks, solar eclipses do not always herald a coming earthquake. However, some seismic zones have a history of precursory phenomena while other zones are known for such events happening without warning. Similarly, some types of eclipses are known for preceding earthquakes while others are not.
In my research, total eclipses appear to pack more potential punch in relation to the timing of significant seismic events than in the case of annular eclipses. And the Saros cycle that an eclipse belongs to, can also determine just how likely that a significant seismic event will follow.
One of the most active Saros cycles of potency (in relation to large earthquakes) also happens to be the newest. It is known as Saros #145, and it is just one among about 40 other active Saros cycles. Saros series 145 lasts 1,370 years and contains 77 eclipse events. Usually there are about equal portions of partial, annular, and total eclipses, but for this Saros cycle it is made up of 41 total and 34 partial eclipses, with only one annular and one hybrid eclipse remaining.
Within each Saros series, an eclipse is separated by 18 years, 11 days, and 8 hours of time. In Saros cycle #145, since it is a new cycle, only a few Total eclipses have so far occurred. Of the five that have (in 1927, 1945, 1963, 1981, and 1999), all but the one in 1981 have had earthquakes of at least 7.5 magnitude fall within five years and no more than 400 miles (644 km) from the center of the eclipse' shadow path. The average so far has been two such earthquakes following each eclipse (as few as none to as many as four quakes and occurring as early as 6 days after the eclipse to as much as 4yr9mos26days after). About 90% of the quakes occur within 4 years, 70% within 1.7 years and 30% within a few days following the eclipse to 0.7 years after.
Evidence for Why This Eclipse Can Be Considered Dangerous
As I suggested earlier, not all eclipses are created equal in terms of their potential for them acting as harbingers of seismic danger. One can say the same about Saros cycles within which a particular eclipse belongs. When it comes to Saros cycles, series 145 stands out among the rest as perhaps the most likely to have a significant seismic event follow one of its Total solar eclipses within a relatively short period of time.
Exhibit 'A' would be the eclipse of 20 July 1963. During the first 1.55 years following this eclipse there were three earthquakes ranging from 8.5 to 9.2 in magnitude within 340 miles (545 km) of the center of the eclipse shadow path. Worldwide earthquakes that size did not occur again until over 39 years later.
While the 1963 eclipse was a record setter for the size of earthquakes following it, the 11 August 1999 solar eclipse (or Exhibit 'B') was one with a more deadly profile. Six days following this eclipse there was a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurring 140 miles (226 km) from the center of the eclipse path. Three months after the eclipse there was a magnitude 7.2 earthquake which occurred 107 miles (173 km) from the center of the eclipse path. The combined death toll from these two quakes in Turkey came to at least 18,000 (but it was likely at least twice that number). Less than 1.5 years after this same eclipse, there was a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Gujarat, India that occurred exactly at the center of the previous eclipse' shadow path. Approximately 20,000 lives were lost from this seismic event.
If you have not guessed it at this point, the eclipse coming up on 21 August 2017 is a member of the same solar eclipse cycle known as Saros #145. Because its shadow path passes entirely through the continental United States, and through seismic zones that have not seen damaging earthquakes for a long period of time, it would not be surprising if two very damaging earthquakes were to occur within five years following this eclipse, but more likely within 1.7 years after.
Likely Times and Locations for Potential Earthquakes in the U.S.
Statistically, based on past history, the most likely period of time for a significant seismic event to occur within 400 miles (644 km) of the center of this eclipse path, is 1 March 2019, give or take 75 days. March 2019, is the most likely month out of all of the potential months, with December 2017 in second place.
Since it is likely that you will want to know at this point where and how large a potential shock might be during this time, I present the following:
The eclipse path passes directly through Charleston, South Carolina. This is the location of the 31 August 1886 earthquake of around 7-7.2 magnitude. It took the lives of many dozens of people. It occurred 2.5 days after a total eclipse of long duration which had its shadow path begin directly south of this same location. A magnitude 6.6 or larger event is possible in that location at this time.
The eclipse path will come within 124 miles (200 km) from the epicenter of a magnitude 7.7 earthquake which occurred in the New Madrid area of Missouri back on 16 or 17 December 1811. Some people say that this area is overdue for another very large earthquake. My impression is that it would take perhaps another 200 years to accumulate enough pent up energy to have a similar sized quake occur there again. However, it is quite possible that it could produce an earthquake of at least 6.8 magnitude in that area, which would be quite damaging.
The eclipse path will pass through the likely epicenter of the January 1700 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake of roughly 8.7-9.2 magnitude. Although some people think, based on media hype, that the chances of a similar quake in this area is overdue, such is not the case. However, there is an overdue likelihood of a less major earthquake, on the order of a magnitude of 7.5-8.4 event, partially rupturing the CSZ off the coast near the border of Oregon and California or 200 miles (322 km) south of the epicenter of the much larger event in 1700.
Another possible location for a significant event of at least 6.7 magnitude may occur on the Hayward fault in the San Franciso bay area. If it does occur there though, it will be an exception based on past history for the eclipses in this Saros cycle. In other words, the almost dozen earthquakes which followed the five eclipses so far in this Saros series, were within 400 miles (644 km) of the center of the eclipse path, while the East Bay in the San Francisco Bay area would be 500 miles (800 km) away. Also, 80% of the 7.5 magnitude or larger earthquakes studied here were within 200 miles (322 km) from the center of the associated eclipse that preceded it.
It is also possible that a damaging earthquake in the U.S. could occur within a few years of this eclipse in a less expected location. Montana or Idaho come to mind as potential areas that have not been mentioned earlier but could be strong candidates for such a quake.
Also possible, but less likely, is that there will be no major earthquake in the United States within a period of no more than five years following the August 2017 eclipse. Such was the case following the 1981 eclipse in the 145th Saros cycle. However, that result is not surprising considering the fact that the early to mid 1980s was an exceptionally slow period for earthquakes of at least 7.5 magnitude (less than half of normal). Based on astrological indicators, late 2017 through at least the middle of 2019, should be a more seismically active period than usual for such large seismic events.
If no earthquake materializes within five years of the August 2017 eclipse in New Madrid or nearby areas, there is a second Total eclipse on 8 April 2024, which will have its path cross that of the August 2017 eclipse shadow, also a short distance from the 7.7 magnitude event of December 1811.
Final Notes Related to a Forecast for the Continental U.S.
Lastly, I wish to give the reader some idea of the probability of at least one seismic event within the continental United States within five years following the August 2017 eclipse. The breakdown of probability of at least one earthquake of 7.5 or larger magnitude within 400 miles (644 km) from the center of the August 2017 eclipse path is given above and was based on just four years so the percentages will differ a bit from that given below:
35% - 1st likelihood = 1.31-1.69 years after (mid Dec 2018 to mid May 2019).
15% - 2nd likelihood = first 144 days after (21 Aug 2017 to mid Jan 2018 or almost 5 months).
15% - 3rd likelihood = 3.51-4.01 years after (late Feb 2021 to late Aug 2021).
10% - 4th likelihood = 0.4-1.3 years after (mid Jan 2018 to mid Dec 2018).
5% - 5th likelihood = 1.7-3.5 years after (mid May 2019 to late Feb 2021).
5% - 6th likelihood = 4.1-5 years after (late Aug 2021 to late Aug 2022).
Note: The remaining probability of 15% would be the likelihood that no such seismic event will occur within 400 miles (644 km) from the center of the shadow path of the August 2017 eclipse.
More information by this author related to this topic can be found in Appendix A, entitled “Forecast,” on page 38 of the following article:
© 2017 Joseph Ritrovato